He is handing the money / He is serving the food / He knows about your party / He is calling you dude. "Comfort Eagle" - Cake
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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69–39 on winners spread MAE 8.8 108 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Siena @ Marist +12.9 131.6 88% 67–60 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Rider +0.5 143.9 52% 77–70 ✗
Monmouth @ Saint Peter's -9.1 131.3 21% 62–67 ✗
Manhattan @ Iona +17.3 150.3 94% 76–88 ✓
VCU @ St. Bonaventure -0.8 124.6 47% 53–73 ✗
Akron @ Kent State +0.6 128.4 52% 55–67 ✓
Michigan @ Illinois +11.2 141.0 85% 53–68 ✓
Davidson @ Richmond -1.3 140.4 45% 87–84 ✓
Fresno State @ UNLV -3.5 121.0 38% 73–68 ✓
Northwestern @ Michigan State +9.6 147.9 81% 64–62 ✗
Creighton @ Xavier +11.4 140.5 85% 73–80 ✓
Texas Tech @ Kansas State -5.0 124.2 32% 51–62 ✗
Seton Hall @ Marquette -0.1 154.7 50% 72–73 ✗
Dayton @ Duquesne -3.8 132.7 37% 72–52 ✓
Tennessee @ Kentucky +3.0 142.9 61% 79–107 ✓
UTSA @ Charlotte +17.0 143.8 94% 53–62 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Wagner +21.4 127.4 97% 76–81 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Bryant +8.1 145.4 77% 66–73 ✓
Vermont @ UMBC -5.0 139.5 32% 86–69 ✓
Oakland @ Purdue Fort Wayne -8.5 138.8 22% 76–68 ✓
VMI @ The Citadel +0.9 160.4 53% 90–85 ✗
Florida @ South Carolina -2.5 134.7 41% 71–63 ✓
NC State @ Duke +18.3 155.1 95% 73–88 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas +11.6 143.3 85% 59–85 ✓
Arkansas @ LSU +16.9 140.1 94% 65–58 ✗
Texas @ Iowa State -0.3 111.6 49% 70–79 ✗
SMU @ Tulane +0.1 149.0 50% 75–66 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee State -6.9 139.2 26% 71–64 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Sacred Heart +9.8 141.9 81% 71–77 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University +11.7 142.7 86% 61–83 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Asheville +11.3 140.3 85% 76–73 ✗
Radford @ Campbell +7.7 122.6 76% 58–70 ✓
Harvard @ Columbia -8.4 147.3 22% 91–82 ✓
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania +4.0 138.4 64% 68–78 ✓
Cornell @ Yale +4.3 156.7 65% 69–96 ✓
Brown @ Princeton +5.5 147.5 69% 74–76 ✓
App State @ Coastal Carolina +6.5 124.0 72% 84–76 ✗
Western Illinois @ North Dakota State +1.6 144.4 56% 90–79 ✗
Wofford @ Western Carolina -7.9 149.5 24% 84–64 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer +1.6 128.1 56% 49–58 ✓
Delaware @ Hofstra +7.0 153.0 74% 77–82 ✓
Drexel @ Northeastern +0.1 134.0 50% 76–68 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan -11.0 150.4 16% 70–62 ✓
Rutgers @ Maryland +6.6 133.1 72% 70–59 ✗
Fordham @ Saint Louis +11.6 140.5 86% 45–63 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin +0.6 144.2 52% 76–70 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Sam Houston -0.7 138.8 47% 41–49 ✗
Saint Francis @ Merrimack +6.1 129.7 71% 62–46 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Longwood +4.9 136.2 67% 60–66 ✓
Florida State @ Syracuse +3.3 151.6 62% 76–71 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +13.8 116.6 89% 54–89 ✓
UL Monroe @ UT Arlington +7.5 146.7 75% 62–55 ✗
Denver @ South Dakota State +18.3 162.6 95% 62–80 ✓
Furman @ Chattanooga +9.5 144.3 81% 69–71 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Samford +2.5 143.4 59% 88–85 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Cleveland State +5.5 145.3 69% 70–72 ✓
Texas A&M @ Missouri -8.7 136.0 21% 67–64 ✓
Gonzaga @ Santa Clara -10.6 164.7 17% 115–83 ✓
Norfolk State @ Howard +7.6 146.1 75% 77–74 ✗
Memphis @ East Carolina -5.6 155.1 30% 71–72 ✗
California @ Washington State +10.2 125.5 82% 57–65 ✓
Coppin State @ Morgan State -0.9 146.6 47% 79–76 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Bakersfield -1.5 111.4 45% 65–64 ✓
Texas Southern @ Alcorn State -0.3 130.9 49% 72–73 ✗
North Texas @ Western Kentucky -1.8 124.3 44% 65–60 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UAB +14.9 145.7 91% 65–76 ✓
Utah Tech @ Seattle U +12.6 151.8 87% 68–79 ✓
Chicago State @ Lamar +4.8 133.7 67% 67–56 ✗
Louisville @ Pittsburgh -2.3 127.8 42% 53–65 ✗
NJIT @ UAlbany +3.1 123.3 61% 56–71 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Stetson -1.2 136.4 46% 77–49 ✓
North Alabama @ Central Arkansas -4.7 138.4 34% 88–89 ✗
Oklahoma @ TCU +0.4 130.1 52% 58–59 ✓
James Madison @ William & Mary -11.9 137.0 14% 95–91 ✓
Towson @ Elon -9.1 140.4 20% 59–54 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +17.4 139.9 94% 64–80 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia +1.9 127.3 57% 63–55 ✗
Rhode Island @ Massachusetts -2.7 151.8 40% 81–68 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois -1.7 139.1 44% 70–77 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Baylor +17.2 140.7 94% 61–54 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Mississippi Valley State -4.6 143.0 34% 62–60 ✓
Murray State @ Belmont +5.8 145.5 70% 82–60 ✗
Portland State @ Sacramento State +6.6 125.7 72% 67–62 ✗
Northwestern State @ SE Louisiana +11.5 155.7 85% 74–79 ✓
Houston Christian @ McNeese +15.0 140.3 91% 75–78 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Florida -5.1 122.2 32% 54–51 ✓
Bellarmine @ Lipscomb +3.0 149.6 61% 77–71 ✗
Louisiana @ Texas State +5.2 139.2 68% 68–72 ✓
Missouri State @ Valparaiso -3.2 140.4 38% 74–57 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota +9.8 146.3 81% 70–105 ✓
Toledo @ Bowling Green -5.5 159.4 31% 91–78 ✓
Nevada @ Air Force -1.8 129.6 44% 75–68 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alabama State +5.2 134.1 68% 55–59 ✓
Nicholls @ LSU New Orleans -4.9 153.9 33% 66–78 ✗
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern -12.0 159.8 14% 70–65 ✓
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama +8.6 137.7 78% 67–73 ✓
Boise State @ New Mexico -8.5 145.2 22% 71–63 ✓
Alabama @ Mississippi State -0.5 150.6 48% 76–78 ✗
Stanford @ Washington -2.4 142.0 41% 64–67 ✗
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee +11.6 140.5 85% 39–50 ✓
Abilene Christian @ New Mexico State +6.6 144.4 73% 63–77 ✓
Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech +8.6 126.9 78% 73–79 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Georgia -5.0 139.8 32% 73–66 ✓
Colorado State @ San José State -8.3 148.4 22% 78–42 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Jackson State +8.0 137.6 77% 63–73 ✓
Southern @ Grambling -5.5 140.3 31% 77–83 ✗
Florida A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -2.5 136.2 41% 71–66 ✓
Boston College @ Clemson +10.7 137.6 84% 70–68 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.