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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
41–10 on winners
spread MAE 8.2
51 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio State
@
Wisconsin
|
+3.6 | 139.9 | 63% | 68–78 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Texas Tech
|
+10.3 | 128.3 | 83% | 57–78 | ✓ |
Canisius
@
Niagara
|
+11.1 | 131.0 | 84% | 58–68 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
Loyola Maryland
|
+10.3 | 137.5 | 83% | 60–74 | ✓ |
Lehigh
@
Bucknell
|
+6.4 | 147.6 | 72% | 97–64 | ✗ |
Butler
@
Georgetown
|
+4.5 | 136.3 | 66% | 72–58 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
Navy
|
+8.5 | 136.4 | 78% | 69–50 | ✗ |
UTSA
@
Old Dominion
|
+13.2 | 130.7 | 89% | 51–83 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Marshall
|
-8.1 | 133.2 | 23% | 69–65 | ✓ |
Southern Miss
@
Louisiana Tech
|
+22.1 | 138.0 | 98% | 57–80 | ✓ |
Florida Atlantic
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+7.2 | 144.7 | 74% | 57–70 | ✓ |
UTEP
@
Charlotte
|
+2.7 | 138.3 | 60% | 53–66 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
Winthrop
|
+3.9 | 147.8 | 64% | 80–86 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
Robert Morris
|
-1.2 | 154.5 | 45% | 75–73 | ✓ |
Northern Kentucky
@
Youngstown State
|
+7.5 | 138.9 | 75% | 68–67 | ✗ |
Oakland
@
Cleveland State
|
-2.9 | 146.6 | 40% | 70–65 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Purdue Fort Wayne
|
-0.1 | 141.9 | 50% | 60–62 | ✗ |
VMI
@
Mercer
|
+1.2 | 146.4 | 54% | 91–97 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
The Citadel
|
+0.0 | 134.9 | 50% | 69–74 | ✓ |
Florida International
@
UAB
|
+17.7 | 145.0 | 95% | 56–84 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
Murray State
|
+22.8 | 147.4 | 98% | 44–67 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
Lamar
|
-3.0 | 137.4 | 39% | 73–56 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+11.5 | 148.6 | 85% | 63–85 | ✓ |
UIC
@
Milwaukee
|
+2.2 | 133.0 | 58% | 81–77 | ✗ |
IU Indianapolis
@
Green Bay
|
+11.0 | 114.1 | 84% | 54–69 | ✓ |
UL Monroe
@
Texas State
|
+9.3 | 149.3 | 80% | 56–80 | ✓ |
Louisiana
@
UT Arlington
|
-0.9 | 134.0 | 47% | 73–83 | ✗ |
Denver
@
South Dakota
|
+3.6 | 138.8 | 63% | 71–80 | ✓ |
Western Illinois
@
North Dakota
|
-12.2 | 156.0 | 13% | 73–68 | ✓ |
Tennessee Tech
@
Belmont
|
+20.5 | 144.8 | 97% | 77–92 | ✓ |
South Dakota State
@
Omaha
|
-17.2 | 166.7 | 6% | 95–86 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Eastern Illinois
|
-10.7 | 124.2 | 17% | 66–53 | ✓ |
Rice
@
Western Kentucky
|
+8.1 | 156.0 | 77% | 66–80 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Weber State
|
+14.8 | 161.0 | 91% | 74–84 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Grand Canyon
|
+4.3 | 130.9 | 65% | 68–95 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
New Mexico State
|
+7.6 | 128.3 | 76% | 57–73 | ✓ |
Georgia State
@
South Alabama
|
+12.0 | 151.7 | 86% | 65–74 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Iowa
|
+5.1 | 153.6 | 68% | 74–83 | ✓ |
Oregon
@
UCLA
|
+12.6 | 146.3 | 87% | 84–81 | ✗ |
UC Santa Barbara
@
Long Beach State
|
-0.8 | 154.9 | 47% | 58–65 | ✗ |
Cal State Northridge
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
+12.1 | 129.3 | 87% | 64–79 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
Cal Poly
|
-5.1 | 118.5 | 32% | 57–46 | ✓ |
Portland
@
San Diego
|
+6.8 | 135.3 | 73% | 63–68 | ✓ |
BYU
@
Gonzaga
|
+12.6 | 150.3 | 87% | 84–110 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
USC
|
+18.6 | 140.0 | 95% | 71–81 | ✓ |
Colorado
@
Arizona
|
+22.9 | 153.3 | 98% | 55–76 | ✓ |
Saint Mary's
@
Pepperdine
|
-11.4 | 130.1 | 15% | 77–62 | ✓ |
Loyola Marymount
@
San Francisco
|
+13.2 | 134.5 | 88% | 73–97 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
Hawai'i
|
-7.0 | 128.3 | 26% | 56–72 | ✗ |
Buffalo
@
Ball State
|
-5.9 | 161.2 | 29% | 74–68 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Purdue
|
+26.4 | 163.4 | 99% | 65–92 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.