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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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30–16 on winners spread MAE 9.1 46 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Wake Forest -3.5 152.9 38% 76–64 ✓
Minnesota @ Michigan State +10.5 137.8 83% 69–71 ✓
LSU @ Florida -6.5 130.5 28% 64–58 ✓
Temple @ Tulsa +2.2 132.1 58% 69–64 ✗
Memphis @ UCF +1.5 150.7 55% 64–74 ✓
East Carolina @ Cincinnati +11.6 137.4 85% 71–79 ✓
UT Martin @ Morehead State +11.6 138.5 85% 62–76 ✓
Hampton @ North Carolina A&T +10.1 129.8 82% 59–67 ✓
Presbyterian @ Gardner-Webb +12.5 128.9 87% 61–64 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Campbell +17.9 136.7 95% 52–67 ✓
Clemson @ Notre Dame +0.5 140.1 52% 56–72 ✓
Stony Brook @ Vermont +13.0 137.1 88% 65–98 ✓
UMass Lowell @ UAlbany -2.3 126.3 42% 47–57 ✗
UMBC @ NJIT +2.1 140.6 57% 76–56 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Rhode Island +7.5 137.8 75% 64–75 ✓
Duquesne @ Fordham +6.8 136.8 73% 71–72 ✓
Chattanooga @ Western Carolina -15.1 151.4 8% 59–70 ✗
Samford @ Wofford +10.8 142.6 84% 64–87 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Furman +9.3 146.0 80% 69–78 ✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington +3.3 135.6 62% 66–73 ✓
Georgia @ Mississippi State +15.6 142.9 92% 72–88 ✓
Delaware State @ Norfolk State +22.8 137.0 98% 51–80 ✓
High Point @ South Carolina Upstate +1.0 140.2 54% 65–66 ✓
Utah State @ Colorado State +4.0 154.7 64% 72–77 ✓
Tulane @ Wichita State +9.2 137.6 80% 68–67 ✗
South Florida @ SMU +14.0 126.0 90% 65–77 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Missouri State +7.8 127.0 76% 76–81 ✓
Illinois State @ Drake +12.7 156.4 88% 75–86 ✓
Evansville @ Bradley +12.8 127.2 88% 47–79 ✓
St. John's @ UConn +15.7 159.6 92% 78–86 ✓
NC State @ Louisville +8.4 147.4 78% 79–63 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Virginia -1.7 112.3 44% 52–54 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Boston College +4.5 130.6 66% 81–76 ✗
TCU @ Kansas State +2.9 126.2 60% 60–57 ✗
Missouri @ Arkansas +14.7 150.3 91% 43–87 ✓
Maryland @ Northwestern +7.4 142.8 75% 94–87 ✗
Santa Clara @ Pacific -9.9 141.6 18% 84–70 ✓
California @ Washington -0.6 132.5 48% 55–64 ✗
Utah Tech @ California Baptist +9.3 145.9 80% 79–76 ✗
Utah Valley @ Seattle U -2.0 141.1 43% 65–71 ✗
Boise State @ Nevada -4.7 136.6 33% 85–70 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Kennesaw State +0.3 155.6 51% 53–77 ✓
Seton Hall @ DePaul -4.9 151.0 33% 92–96 ✗
Stanford @ Washington State +9.6 139.2 81% 62–57 ✗
Boston University @ Army -1.9 140.4 43% 63–73 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ App State +0.2 124.9 51% 60–61 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.