Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 117.0 Under |
| Money | UVA -115 VT -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +2 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | VT -2.6 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 111.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -0.7 (+2.7) | 119.9 (-13.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -1.4 (+3.4) | 124.6 (-18.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VT -1.2 (+3.2) | 126.9 (-20.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -1.6 (+3.6) | 121.2 (-15.2) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UVA 76 – 72 VT |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VT 95 – 85 UVA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UVA 73 – 70 VT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | VT 75 – 74 UVA |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VT 75 – 41 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.1 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#90) | 12.6 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#93) | 0.87 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#76) | 1.56 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#102) | 0.537 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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