Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -320 SIU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -9.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.0 (+30.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -7.9 (-2.9) | 131.3 (+25.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -7.5 (-2.5) | 133.6 (+23.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -7.2 (-2.2) | 134.4 (+22.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -7.6 (-2.6) | 131.1 (+25.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2025 | SIU 73 – 51 MOST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SIU 88 – 78 MOST |
| Feb 1, 2024 | MOST 76 – 75 SIU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | SIU 54 – 51 MOST |
| Feb 5, 2023 | SIU 73 – 53 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 61.6 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#83) | 1.1 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#156) | 0.19 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#122) | 0.02 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#170) | 0.492 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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