Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT -420 HAMP +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +8 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | NCAT -10.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -7.7 (+0.3) | 133.8 (-7.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -7.5 (+0.5) | 133.6 (-7.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -9.1 (-1.1) | 132.4 (-6.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -8.3 (-0.3) | 134.8 (-8.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | NCAT 71 – 70 HAMP |
| Jan 20, 2026 | HAMP 82 – 61 NCAT |
| Jan 21, 2025 | HAMP 74 – 73 NCAT |
| Dec 4, 2024 | HAMP 82 – 71 NCAT |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NCAT 59 – 58 HAMP |
Game Analysis
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