Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | NU -230 MD +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +7 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | NU -7.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+38.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -5.8 (-12.8) | 140.2 (+40.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -5.5 (-12.5) | 143.9 (+37.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NU -5.4 (-12.4) | 144.3 (+36.7) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -5.6 (-12.6) | 145.5 (+35.5) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NU 78 – 74 MD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MD 74 – 61 NU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NU 76 – 74 MD |
| Feb 29, 2024 | NU 68 – 61 MD |
| Jan 18, 2024 | NU 72 – 69 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#55) | 5.1 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#107) | 0.50 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#102) | 0.77 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#132) | 0.527 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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