Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | FUR -420 ETSU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -9.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -7.2 (+1.8) | 144.3 (+2.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -8.5 (+0.5) | 145.1 (+1.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -8.9 (+0.1) | 145.0 (+2.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -7.8 (+1.2) | 143.6 (+3.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | FUR 76 – 61 ETSU |
| Feb 18, 2026 | ETSU 78 – 69 FUR |
| Feb 5, 2026 | ETSU 75 – 71 FUR |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ETSU 72 – 69 FUR |
| Jan 16, 2025 | FUR 73 – 70 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#104) | -1.0 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#96) | 0.54 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#105) | 0.54 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#80) | 0.527 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 12.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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