Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | UNCW -120 ELON +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -3.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -2.4 (+4.6) | 135.6 (+3.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -1.9 (+5.1) | 136.2 (+2.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -2.3 (+4.7) | 137.8 (+1.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -2.5 (+4.5) | 135.5 (+3.5) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 57 ELON |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCW 65 – 54 ELON |
| Feb 16, 2025 | ELON 81 – 70 UNCW |
| Feb 18, 2024 | ELON 73 – 72 UNCW |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UNCW 82 – 70 ELON |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-5 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#287) | -6.9 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#221) | -1.47 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#251) | -1.66 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#255) | 0.451 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 37.6% |
Game Analysis
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