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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–4 on winners spread MAE 6.7 35 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Texas Tech @ Baylor +10.6 135.8 83% 65–62 ✗
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt -6.0 137.0 29% 78–66 ✓
DePaul @ Marquette +8.0 152.6 77% 76–87 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse +10.8 143.9 84% 61–77 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ North Alabama +1.5 138.5 55% 75–76 ✓
North Florida @ Liberty +16.0 135.5 93% 56–71 ✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville State +13.6 148.5 89% 83–88 ✓
Stetson @ Jacksonville +10.3 114.5 83% 50–57 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Bellarmine +11.0 147.3 84% 63–85 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ La Salle -7.0 143.0 26% 80–76 ✓
George Washington @ VCU +19.5 117.1 96% 57–84 ✓
Saint Louis @ Dayton +1.6 137.5 56% 63–68 ✓
Massachusetts @ Davidson +14.0 159.2 90% 67–77 ✓
Northeastern @ James Madison +6.2 130.3 71% 66–89 ✓
Delaware @ Drexel +4.5 142.5 66% 81–77 ✗
Ball State @ Akron +10.2 139.1 82% 74–84 ✓
Bowling Green @ Ohio +11.3 148.8 85% 78–85 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Kent State +12.1 123.1 86% 65–63 ✗
Buffalo @ Western Michigan -13.8 157.3 10% 78–64 ✓
Toledo @ Miami (OH) -1.8 153.8 43% 75–72 ✓
Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan +13.3 155.6 89% 68–99 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Stephen F. Austin +12.2 152.1 87% 75–86 ✓
Iowa State @ Kansas +10.2 140.1 82% 61–62 ✓
Miami @ Florida State +6.0 148.1 71% 64–65 ✓
Indiana State @ Northern Iowa +8.7 149.6 78% 74–80 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas +7.2 121.0 74% 52–66 ✓
Illinois @ Nebraska -17.9 156.4 5% 81–71 ✓
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M +6.2 132.1 71% 51–67 ✓
Auburn @ Alabama +0.7 156.2 52% 81–77 ✗
Oklahoma State @ West Virginia +3.6 129.1 63% 60–70 ✓
Valparaiso @ Loyola Chicago +18.2 138.2 95% 74–81 ✓
San José State @ Fresno State +14.7 122.5 91% 59–79 ✓
New Mexico @ UNLV +4.2 152.5 65% 56–85 ✓
Villanova @ Xavier -0.6 135.0 48% 64–60 ✓
Longwood @ Radford -3.5 130.2 37% 83–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.