Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +11 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -11.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -11.0 (-0.0) | 152.3 (+8.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -9.5 (+1.5) | 149.6 (+11.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -9.5 (+1.5) | 149.4 (+11.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -9.1 (+1.9) | 151.5 (+9.5) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SFA 66 – 57 RGV |
| Dec 4, 2025 | SFA 73 – 60 RGV |
| Feb 11, 2025 | SFA 85 – 75 RGV |
| Dec 6, 2024 | RGV 68 – 65 SFA |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SFA 92 – 84 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 3-15 |
| Home | 13-3 | 4-9 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#130) | -6.1 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#138) | -1.19 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#147) | -1.41 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#110) | 0.481 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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