Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -130 VILL +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +4 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -0.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -2.1 (-6.1) | 137.8 (-13.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -2.6 (-6.6) | 137.9 (-13.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -2.1 (-6.1) | 139.1 (-15.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -2.3 (-6.3) | 137.5 (-13.5) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | VILL 91 – 78 XAV |
| Feb 17, 2026 | VILL 92 – 89 XAV |
| Feb 9, 2025 | VILL 80 – 68 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2025 | XAV 69 – 63 VILL |
| Feb 8, 2024 | XAV 56 – 53 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 16-4 |
| Home | 16-5 | 12-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#16) | 18.0 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#11) | 3.23 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.15 (#13) | 4.37 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.655 (#11) | 0.664 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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