Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +1 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -6.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -5.8 (-4.8) | 145.8 (-16.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -4.9 (-3.9) | 148.9 (-19.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -5.0 (-4.0) | 150.2 (-21.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -4.5 (-3.5) | 147.1 (-18.1) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MIA 83 – 73 FSU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | FSU 65 – 63 MIA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FSU 74 – 66 MIA |
| Jan 9, 2025 | FSU 80 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FSU 83 – 75 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#64) | 5.1 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#87) | 2.26 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#83) | 2.36 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#62) | 0.609 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.