Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +4 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -0.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -2.4 (-6.4) | 152.5 (+5.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -1.2 (-5.2) | 153.8 (+4.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -1.4 (-5.4) | 151.3 (+6.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -0.9 (-4.9) | 155.1 (+2.9) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ALA 96 – 84 AUB |
| Feb 7, 2026 | ALA 96 – 92 AUB |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALA 93 – 91 AUB |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AUB 94 – 85 ALA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | AUB 99 – 81 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 16-0 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#15) | 18.7 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#29) | 4.03 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.52 (#26) | 5.18 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.687 (#2) | 0.687 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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