Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | NEB +600 ILL -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +10 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -16.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -16.1 (+6.1) | 154.1 (-2.1) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -15.2 (+5.2) | 152.9 (-0.9) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -16.7 (+6.7) | 152.1 (-0.1) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -14.3 (+4.3) | 152.0 (+0.0) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | ILL 78 – 69 NEB |
| Dec 13, 2025 | NEB 83 – 80 ILL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | NEB 80 – 74 ILL |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ILL 98 – 87 NEB |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ILL 87 – 84 NEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 15-5 |
| Home | 7-12 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#230) | 17.4 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#247) | 2.38 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#210) | 3.24 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#244) | 0.612 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 43.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 41.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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