Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +6 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -8.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -5.5 (+0.5) | 148.1 (+5.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -6.6 (-0.6) | 149.0 (+5.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -6.4 (-0.4) | 149.9 (+4.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -5.7 (+0.3) | 148.7 (+5.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UNI 81 – 60 INST |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UNI 75 – 66 INST |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNI 88 – 73 INST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNI 74 – 56 INST |
| Mar 9, 2024 | INST 94 – 72 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 9-5 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#106) | 0.2 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#190) | 0.04 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#170) | -0.09 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#180) | 0.517 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 83.5% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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