Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +20 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -16.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.5 (+15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -12.6 (+7.4) | 129.9 (+8.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -12.8 (+7.2) | 131.6 (+6.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -14.1 (+5.9) | 131.3 (+6.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -13.9 (+6.1) | 127.8 (+10.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FRES 82 – 68 SJSU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | FRES 70 – 55 SJSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJSU 92 – 68 FRES |
| Feb 5, 2025 | SJSU 94 – 91 FRES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | FRES 69 – 57 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 1-17 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-9 |
| Away | 6-8 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.6 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#57) | -3.7 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#80) | 0.15 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#72) | -0.12 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#78) | 0.507 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 14.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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