Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | JAX -200 STET +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +7 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -10.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 113.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -7.5 (-0.5) | 125.5 (-18.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -9.1 (-2.1) | 126.8 (-19.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -10.1 (-3.1) | 126.6 (-19.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -9.8 (-2.8) | 126.8 (-19.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | JAX 89 – 85 STET |
| Feb 12, 2026 | STET 67 – 62 JAX |
| Feb 27, 2025 | JAX 79 – 72 STET |
| Feb 7, 2025 | JAX 74 – 65 STET |
| Mar 8, 2024 | STET 88 – 87 JAX |
Game Analysis
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