Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +10 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -11.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -9.0 (+1.0) | 141.3 (+16.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -8.9 (+1.1) | 142.9 (+15.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -9.2 (+0.8) | 143.0 (+15.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -8.8 (+1.2) | 142.9 (+15.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | AKR 78 – 65 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2026 | AKR 87 – 77 BALL |
| Feb 26, 2025 | AKR 87 – 82 BALL |
| Feb 5, 2025 | AKR 81 – 73 BALL |
| Jan 10, 2024 | AKR 80 – 76 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.9 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#149) | -6.7 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#160) | -0.52 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#157) | -0.76 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#168) | 0.460 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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