Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | M-OH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -1.4 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -2.5 (-0.5) | 151.3 (-4.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -3.8 (+0.8) | 150.9 (-3.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -4.9 (+1.9) | 152.8 (-5.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -4.0 (+1.0) | 154.6 (-7.6) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | M-OH 74 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 9, 2026 | M-OH 87 – 73 TOL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | M-OH 92 – 80 TOL |
| Mar 6, 2024 | TOL 97 – 63 M-OH |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOL 68 – 64 M-OH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | M-OH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 17-3 |
| Home | 9-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#129) | 7.1 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#231) | 1.22 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#212) | 1.43 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#278) | 0.562 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | M-OH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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