Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +29 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -4.3 (+24.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -6.5 (+22.5) | 153.6 (-12.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -5.1 (+23.9) | 150.8 (-9.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -5.0 (+24.0) | 152.1 (-11.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -5.2 (+23.8) | 153.5 (-12.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | UNM 89 – 61 UNLV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UNM 81 – 67 UNLV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNM 75 – 73 UNLV |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UNLV 80 – 77 UNM |
| Jan 10, 2024 | UNLV 83 – 73 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#152) | 0.2 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#142) | -0.07 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#121) | 0.00 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#132) | 0.502 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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