Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +3 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -11.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -9.7 (-12.7) | 135.2 (-8.2) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -12.1 (-15.1) | 138.5 (-11.5) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -11.8 (-14.8) | 140.4 (-13.4) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -10.3 (-13.3) | 140.1 (-13.1) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | TTU 92 – 73 BAY |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TTU 76 – 74 BAY |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TTU 73 – 59 BAY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TTU 78 – 68 BAY |
| Feb 7, 2024 | BAY 79 – 73 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 18-0 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 60.6 |
| Massey | 21.9 (#2) | 14.2 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.60 (#1) | 2.68 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.59 (#1) | 3.90 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.670 (#8) | 0.551 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 38.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.2% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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