Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +14 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -13.2 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -12.2 (-1.8) | 152.7 (-10.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -10.8 (-3.2) | 157.6 (-15.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -10.9 (-3.1) | 156.3 (-14.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -10.5 (-3.5) | 154.8 (-12.8) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | BUF 88 – 71 WMU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WMU 97 – 64 BUF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BUF 85 – 76 WMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WMU 91 – 72 BUF |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WMU 82 – 77 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 19-11 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 13-6 |
| Home | 4-10 | 9-3 |
| Away | 2-13 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -13.5 (#341) | 3.5 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#286) | -0.06 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#291) | 0.41 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#245) | 0.499 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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