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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–6 on winners
spread MAE 7.8
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Western Carolina
@
East Tennessee State
|
+8.9 | 149.9 | 79% | 69–87 | ✓ |
Bucknell
@
Loyola Maryland
|
+10.6 | 146.1 | 83% | 67–71 | ✓ |
Holy Cross
@
Lehigh
|
+7.6 | 137.8 | 76% | 69–77 | ✓ |
Boston University
@
American University
|
-8.4 | 136.8 | 22% | 79–53 | ✓ |
Navy
@
Lafayette
|
-10.2 | 131.3 | 18% | 69–55 | ✓ |
UIC
@
IU Indianapolis
|
-9.0 | 118.7 | 21% | 67–65 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
-5.8 | 132.3 | 30% | 69–59 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Florida A&M
|
+4.5 | 133.5 | 66% | 66–75 | ✓ |
Omaha
@
Kansas City
|
+15.0 | 138.7 | 91% | 61–64 | ✓ |
South Dakota
@
North Dakota
|
-4.1 | 145.6 | 35% | 75–68 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
Alabama A&M
|
-0.0 | 112.8 | 50% | 58–60 | ✗ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Texas Southern
|
+23.3 | 144.4 | 98% | 58–95 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+10.3 | 160.9 | 83% | 58–75 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Alabama State
|
+0.9 | 144.4 | 53% | 70–60 | ✗ |
North Dakota State
@
Denver
|
+1.8 | 136.5 | 56% | 87–69 | ✗ |
Oregon
@
Oregon State
|
-3.0 | 141.8 | 39% | 78–76 | ✓ |
San Diego
@
Pepperdine
|
+1.7 | 136.1 | 56% | 72–62 | ✗ |
Quinnipiac
@
Canisius
|
-0.8 | 147.2 | 47% | 67–79 | ✗ |
Iona
@
Fairfield
|
-4.2 | 140.8 | 35% | 80–76 | ✓ |
USC
@
Stanford
|
-6.9 | 140.5 | 27% | 69–75 | ✗ |
Hofstra
@
Towson
|
+5.6 | 148.8 | 70% | 66–78 | ✓ |
South Carolina
@
Tennessee
|
+18.6 | 137.4 | 95% | 46–66 | ✓ |
Rutgers
@
Penn State
|
+5.2 | 126.0 | 68% | 49–66 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.