Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | BCU +165 SOU -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +10 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -5.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -4.0 (-6.0) | 134.0 (-6.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -5.2 (-4.8) | 134.4 (-6.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -4.5 (-5.5) | 134.7 (-6.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -5.1 (-4.9) | 134.3 (-6.3) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BCU 82 – 79 SOU |
| Jan 13, 2026 | SOU 77 – 73 BCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BCU 70 – 69 SOU |
| Jan 14, 2025 | SOU 69 – 53 BCU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | BCU 73 – 58 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BCU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 4-6 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-13 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#328) | -1.8 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#328) | 0.06 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#316) | -0.28 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#330) | 0.503 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BCU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.5% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 25.8% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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