Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +7 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | SDAK -4.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -5.6 (-1.4) | 141.6 (+1.4) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -4.3 (-2.7) | 146.5 (-3.5) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -4.4 (-2.6) | 148.5 (-5.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -4.7 (-2.3) | 146.3 (-3.3) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | UND 72 – 71 SDAK |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UND 96 – 80 SDAK |
| Mar 1, 2025 | SDAK 92 – 79 UND |
| Jan 24, 2025 | SDAK 102 – 93 UND |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UND 95 – 66 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 11-7 |
| Home | 4-11 | 12-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -16.1 (#352) | -8.0 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#334) | -0.67 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.74 (#339) | -0.95 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.359 (#348) | 0.436 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.6% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 79.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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