Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | LAF +330 NAVY -410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +14 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -10.4 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -11.1 (-2.9) | 132.9 (-8.9) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -10.3 (-3.7) | 136.2 (-12.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -10.2 (-3.8) | 136.5 (-12.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -10.4 (-3.6) | 134.7 (-10.7) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 50 LAF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 50 LAF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | LAF 61 – 51 NAVY |
| Jan 5, 2025 | NAVY 71 – 70 LAF |
| Feb 29, 2024 | NAVY 62 – 58 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-9 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 60.8 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#314) | 4.7 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#330) | 0.94 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.13 (#334) | 1.06 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#313) | 0.526 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 13.3% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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