Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
| Money | AMER +260 BU -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +26 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | BU -7.9 (-18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -8.5 (-17.5) | 132.6 (-0.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -6.5 (-19.5) | 137.7 (-5.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -6.5 (-19.5) | 137.4 (-5.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -7.4 (-18.6) | 135.5 (-3.5) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | BU 75 – 73 AMER |
| Feb 28, 2026 | BU 68 – 65 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2026 | AMER 64 – 62 BU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AMER 48 – 44 BU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | BU 60 – 54 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-16 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#338) | -1.2 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#303) | -0.21 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#295) | -0.38 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#331) | 0.481 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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