Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -5.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -3.8 (+8.2) | 141.4 (+2.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -5.7 (+6.3) | 146.7 (-2.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -5.9 (+6.1) | 147.1 (-3.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -5.3 (+6.7) | 145.1 (-1.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | HOF 68 – 65 TOW |
| Feb 7, 2026 | HOF 71 – 49 TOW |
| Jan 8, 2026 | HOF 78 – 67 TOW |
| Jan 17, 2025 | TOW 65 – 60 HOF |
| Feb 3, 2024 | HOF 59 – 56 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 11-5 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.4 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#85) | 4.8 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#98) | 1.10 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#90) | 1.68 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#92) | 0.587 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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