Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | PV -800 UAPB +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +17 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | PV -7.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (-27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -5.9 (+11.1) | 145.4 (-12.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -2.6 (+14.4) | 151.8 (-18.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -2.8 (+14.2) | 151.1 (-18.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -2.6 (+14.4) | 150.6 (-17.6) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UAPB 84 – 82 PV |
| Jan 13, 2026 | PV 73 – 61 UAPB |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UAPB 75 – 64 PV |
| Jan 13, 2025 | PV 75 – 64 UAPB |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UAPB 72 – 59 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-15 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 79.3 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#332) | -15.2 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.40 (#356) | -2.79 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.13 (#357) | -4.05 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#279) | 0.419 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 27.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.7% | 58.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 61.4% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.0% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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