Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +18 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | DEN -1.4 (-19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -1.4 (-16.6) | 141.9 (+14.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -0.9 (-17.1) | 142.0 (+14.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -0.6 (-17.4) | 143.3 (+12.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -0.9 (-17.1) | 142.3 (+13.7) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | DEN 78 – 71 NDSU |
| Jan 23, 2026 | NDSU 82 – 77 DEN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NDSU 89 – 84 DEN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NDSU 69 – 50 DEN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DEN 77 – 71 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-12 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#276) | -4.0 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#295) | 0.33 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#296) | 0.32 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#316) | 0.504 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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