Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Over |
| Money | CONN -650 SJU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +8 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -14.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -12.3 (-4.3) | 153.7 (+10.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -11.6 (-3.6) | 156.3 (+7.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -11.4 (-3.4) | 156.4 (+7.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -12.2 (-4.2) | 157.4 (+6.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SJU 72 – 52 CONN |
| Feb 26, 2026 | CONN 72 – 40 SJU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SJU 81 – 72 CONN |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SJU 89 – 75 CONN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SJU 68 – 62 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 8-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 79.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#14) | 6.1 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#19) | 1.15 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.90 (#19) | 1.90 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#40) | 0.540 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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