Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | UPST +140 HPU -159 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -0.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -0.8 (+0.2) | 141.6 (-10.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -1.1 (-0.1) | 141.9 (-10.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -0.2 (+0.8) | 142.2 (-11.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -0.6 (+0.4) | 144.5 (-13.5) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | HPU 95 – 70 UPST |
| Jan 18, 2026 | HPU 89 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 27, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | HPU 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UPST 86 – 81 HPU |
Game Analysis
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