Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -800 MINN +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +2 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -11.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -9.7 (-7.7) | 141.1 (-1.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -10.8 (-8.8) | 141.0 (-1.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -9.7 (-7.7) | 141.7 (-1.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -9.1 (-7.1) | 142.7 (-2.7) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | MINN 76 – 73 MSU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | MSU 73 – 51 MINN |
| Dec 5, 2024 | MSU 90 – 72 MINN |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MSU 77 – 67 MINN |
| Feb 7, 2024 | MINN 59 – 56 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-16 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#22) | 6.7 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.91 (#4) | 2.32 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.86 (#5) | 2.75 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.678 (#4) | 0.620 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 16.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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