Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | WAKE +200 DUKE -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +12 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -3.1 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -2.0 (-10.0) | 150.1 (-10.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -1.0 (-11.0) | 150.6 (-10.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -0.8 (-11.2) | 150.6 (-10.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -2.5 (-9.5) | 152.8 (-12.8) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | DUKE 90 – 69 WAKE |
| Mar 4, 2025 | DUKE 93 – 60 WAKE |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DUKE 63 – 56 WAKE |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WAKE 83 – 79 DUKE |
| Feb 13, 2024 | DUKE 77 – 69 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 16-4 |
| Home | 18-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#44) | 16.7 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#50) | 2.56 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#49) | 3.91 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#69) | 0.587 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 10.8% |
Game Analysis
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