Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
| Money | CSU -270 USU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -4.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -4.0 (+1.0) | 148.1 (+0.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -5.1 (-0.1) | 151.9 (-2.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -4.6 (+0.4) | 152.2 (-3.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -5.8 (-0.8) | 150.9 (-1.9) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | USU 65 – 61 CSU |
| Dec 20, 2025 | USU 100 – 58 CSU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CSU 83 – 72 USU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CSU 93 – 66 USU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | USU 93 – 85 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-6 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#56) | 8.2 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#15) | 1.45 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.84 (#20) | 2.21 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#13) | 0.575 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.1% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.1 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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