Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
| Money | ARK -1100 MIZ +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +44 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -14.3 (+29.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -11.9 (+32.1) | 148.2 (-18.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -11.2 (+32.8) | 152.4 (-22.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -12.2 (+31.8) | 153.0 (-23.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -12.5 (+31.5) | 150.8 (-20.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 84 MIZ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARK 94 – 86 MIZ |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ARK 92 – 85 MIZ |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 65 ARK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ARK 88 – 73 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 17-1 | 8-8 |
| Away | 5-4 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#71) | -3.2 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#102) | 0.37 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#86) | 0.34 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#101) | 0.504 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 25.1% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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