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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
31–15 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
46 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UCF
@
South Florida
|
-8.1 | 122.3 | 23% | 51–75 | ✗ |
Cal State Northridge
@
Long Beach State
|
+7.2 | 139.3 | 74% | 55–71 | ✓ |
UTEP
@
Old Dominion
|
+3.0 | 123.4 | 61% | 78–70 | ✗ |
Rice
@
Marshall
|
+2.2 | 165.3 | 58% | 87–77 | ✗ |
North Carolina A&T
@
High Point
|
+2.3 | 135.6 | 58% | 71–78 | ✓ |
Liberty
@
Florida Gulf Coast
|
-1.4 | 140.7 | 45% | 78–75 | ✓ |
Jacksonville State
@
Eastern Kentucky
|
-1.8 | 149.2 | 44% | 76–65 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
Youngstown State
|
+5.0 | 148.3 | 68% | 87–90 | ✓ |
Northern Kentucky
@
Robert Morris
|
+0.2 | 142.8 | 51% | 64–74 | ✓ |
UIC
@
Green Bay
|
-0.4 | 135.1 | 48% | 80–63 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Indiana State
|
-8.8 | 149.0 | 21% | 64–56 | ✓ |
Utah
@
Arizona
|
+23.0 | 155.4 | 98% | 64–82 | ✓ |
Houston
@
Tulsa
|
-16.0 | 134.3 | 7% | 66–64 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Idaho State
|
-3.0 | 140.4 | 39% | 74–81 | ✗ |
Portland
@
Pepperdine
|
+2.9 | 147.6 | 60% | 82–63 | ✗ |
Georgia Tech
@
North Carolina
|
+15.1 | 146.6 | 92% | 65–88 | ✓ |
Northern Iowa
@
Southern Illinois
|
+0.2 | 131.3 | 51% | 69–68 | ✗ |
Oral Roberts
@
Kansas City
|
-4.1 | 139.3 | 36% | 84–72 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Ole Miss
|
-11.5 | 137.2 | 15% | 80–71 | ✓ |
UC Santa Barbara
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
+6.3 | 141.0 | 72% | 73–79 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
Grand Canyon
|
+8.9 | 120.0 | 79% | 59–80 | ✓ |
Loyola Marymount
@
San Diego
|
+1.8 | 129.6 | 57% | 65–70 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Utah State
|
+0.4 | 145.1 | 51% | 71–69 | ✗ |
Colorado
@
Arizona State
|
-0.1 | 130.8 | 50% | 75–57 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
Cal Poly
|
-5.2 | 127.5 | 32% | 74–82 | ✗ |
Utah Valley
@
California Baptist
|
-5.4 | 136.0 | 31% | 73–75 | ✗ |
Oregon State
@
UCLA
|
+18.7 | 149.1 | 96% | 65–81 | ✓ |
Oregon
@
USC
|
+10.0 | 141.7 | 82% | 79–69 | ✗ |
BYU
@
San Francisco
|
+2.0 | 139.9 | 57% | 71–69 | ✗ |
UC San Diego
@
Hawai'i
|
+5.4 | 139.4 | 69% | 56–79 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Villanova
|
+18.8 | 117.1 | 96% | 42–82 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Ohio State
|
+8.1 | 135.3 | 77% | 56–61 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
Wichita State
|
+2.1 | 128.4 | 58% | 61–57 | ✗ |
Navy
@
Boston University
|
-0.2 | 125.8 | 49% | 72–65 | ✓ |
Binghamton
@
Maine
|
-6.3 | 130.6 | 28% | 73–65 | ✓ |
Niagara
@
Iona
|
+10.0 | 134.3 | 82% | 55–78 | ✓ |
Army
@
Lafayette
|
-2.0 | 143.9 | 43% | 54–68 | ✗ |
Bucknell
@
American University
|
-0.1 | 148.0 | 50% | 55–63 | ✗ |
Monmouth
@
Marist
|
-4.5 | 134.8 | 34% | 48–84 | ✗ |
Fairfield
@
Quinnipiac
|
+0.3 | 144.2 | 51% | 66–72 | ✓ |
Canisius
@
Manhattan
|
+6.5 | 147.7 | 72% | 75–80 | ✓ |
Saint Peter's
@
Rider
|
-1.5 | 131.7 | 45% | 58–51 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Minnesota
|
-3.2 | 157.3 | 39% | 81–71 | ✓ |
Louisiana Tech
@
Southern Miss
|
-14.9 | 138.5 | 9% | 76–62 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
St. John's
|
+12.4 | 165.7 | 87% | 69–88 | ✓ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Lehigh
|
-2.3 | 138.0 | 42% | 69–57 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.