Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +1 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -0.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -0.2 (-1.2) | 130.2 (+6.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -0.2 (-1.2) | 137.0 (+0.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -0.5 (-1.5) | 139.0 (-2.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -0.3 (-1.3) | 133.6 (+3.4) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SIU 59 – 57 UNI |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SIU 65 – 50 UNI |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SIU 73 – 49 UNI |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNI 78 – 67 SIU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNI 82 – 70 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.6 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#137) | 5.0 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#177) | 0.07 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#182) | 0.27 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#193) | 0.506 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 83.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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