Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -9.0 Push |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +9 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -11.6 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -7.6 (-1.4) | 140.5 (+10.5) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -10.3 (+1.3) | 140.7 (+10.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -9.2 (+0.2) | 140.8 (+10.2) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -9.1 (+0.1) | 147.3 (+3.7) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MISS 85 – 79 AUB |
| Jan 21, 2026 | AUB 78 – 66 MISS |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AUB 62 – 57 MISS |
| Feb 27, 2025 | AUB 106 – 76 MISS |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AUB 92 – 82 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-8 | 16-0 |
| Away | 2-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#115) | 19.1 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#121) | 4.13 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#108) | 5.18 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#143) | 0.692 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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