Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +7 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | IDHO -0.9 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDHO -1.2 (+8.2) | 141.6 (+13.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDHO -3.2 (+10.2) | 140.6 (+14.4) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDHO -2.7 (+9.7) | 142.4 (+12.6) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDHO -3.0 (+10.0) | 140.5 (+14.5) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | IDHO 99 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | IDST 76 – 68 IDHO |
| Feb 28, 2025 | IDST 69 – 65 IDHO |
| Feb 1, 2025 | IDST 87 – 71 IDHO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | IDHO 55 – 53 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-23 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 6-14 |
| Home | 5-8 | 8-7 |
| Away | 2-14 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 80.3 |
| Massey | -15.6 (#350) | -10.9 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.34 (#354) | -2.52 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.55 (#354) | -2.36 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.317 (#357) | 0.385 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.9% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.1% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.4% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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