Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +19 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -11.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -9.3 (+9.7) | 157.0 (-0.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -10.6 (+8.4) | 159.3 (-2.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -10.9 (+8.1) | 158.8 (-1.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -10.9 (+8.1) | 157.7 (-0.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SJU 72 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SJU 95 – 83 GTWN |
| Jan 28, 2025 | SJU 66 – 41 GTWN |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SJU 63 – 58 GTWN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SJU 86 – 78 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 0-19 |
| Home | 13-6 | 6-11 |
| Away | 4-8 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L21 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#82) | -1.2 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#88) | -0.38 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#75) | -0.33 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#112) | 0.462 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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