Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +8 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -9.4 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -9.1 (+1.1) | 142.6 (-22.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -7.0 (-1.0) | 146.4 (-26.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -7.5 (-0.5) | 146.3 (-26.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -8.0 (-0.0) | 145.2 (-25.2) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2021 | LUC 88 – 76 INST |
| Mar 6, 2021 | LUC 65 – 49 INST |
| Jan 12, 2021 | LUC 58 – 48 INST |
| Jan 10, 2021 | INST 76 – 71 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 61.9 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#159) | 13.5 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#197) | 3.13 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#204) | 4.05 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#167) | 0.621 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 58.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 19.9% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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