Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +12 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -21.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -15.6 (-3.6) | 147.3 (+16.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -15.3 (-3.3) | 147.9 (+16.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -16.7 (-4.7) | 147.4 (+16.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -16.1 (-4.1) | 146.9 (+17.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2022 | LUC 64 – 56 INST |
| Mar 6, 2021 | LUC 65 – 49 INST |
| Jan 12, 2021 | LUC 58 – 48 INST |
| Jan 10, 2021 | INST 76 – 71 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#13) | -0.9 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#132) | 0.03 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#105) | 0.07 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#129) | 0.515 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 42.2% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.9% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.