Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -700 INST +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +16 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -11.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -7.8 (+8.2) | 123.3 (-9.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -8.2 (+7.8) | 126.0 (-12.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -8.6 (+7.4) | 124.2 (-10.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -8.4 (+7.6) | 125.6 (-11.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2022 | LUC 64 – 56 INST |
| Dec 2, 2021 | LUC 88 – 76 INST |
| Jan 12, 2021 | LUC 58 – 48 INST |
| Jan 10, 2021 | INST 76 – 71 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-5 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-0 | 9-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.4 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#18) | 2.9 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#35) | 0.70 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#30) | 0.64 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#32) | 0.547 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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