Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | INST +333 LUC -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +10 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -3.4 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -2.5 (-7.5) | 134.7 (-28.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -1.3 (-8.7) | 139.0 (-33.0) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -2.5 (-7.5) | 138.4 (-32.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -1.0 (-9.0) | 138.8 (-32.8) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2022 | LUC 64 – 56 INST |
| Dec 2, 2021 | LUC 88 – 76 INST |
| Mar 6, 2021 | LUC 65 – 49 INST |
| Jan 10, 2021 | INST 76 – 71 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-10 | 26-5 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 16-2 |
| Home | 9-3 | 13-0 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 56.4 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#129) | 8.4 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#152) | 0.39 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#143) | 0.69 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#148) | 0.517 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 50.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 82.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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