Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | INST +310 LUC -380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -5.3 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -5.1 (+10.1) | 134.4 (+12.6) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -4.2 (+9.2) | 137.8 (+9.2) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -4.6 (+9.6) | 139.2 (+7.8) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -3.3 (+8.3) | 137.9 (+9.1) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2022 | LUC 64 – 56 INST |
| Dec 2, 2021 | LUC 88 – 76 INST |
| Mar 6, 2021 | LUC 65 – 49 INST |
| Jan 12, 2021 | LUC 58 – 48 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-10 | 26-5 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 16-2 |
| Home | 9-3 | 13-0 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 56.4 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#143) | 9.3 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#206) | 0.84 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#192) | 1.45 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#183) | 0.540 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 51.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 58.7% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 82.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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