Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +40 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -21.1 (+18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -16.0 (+24.0) | 124.8 (-0.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -16.2 (+23.8) | 126.9 (-2.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -17.0 (+23.0) | 127.6 (-3.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -17.3 (+22.7) | 126.4 (-2.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | VILL 82 – 73 BTLR |
| Jan 3, 2026 | VILL 85 – 67 BTLR |
| Mar 1, 2025 | VILL 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 1, 2025 | VILL 73 – 65 BTLR |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VILL 72 – 62 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#10) | 0.8 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#10) | 1.41 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.24 (#12) | 1.87 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.651 (#10) | 0.539 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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