Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +5 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | MAN -6.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -4.0 (+1.0) | 148.0 (+7.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -5.1 (-0.1) | 148.8 (+6.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -5.2 (-0.2) | 148.8 (+6.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -5.3 (-0.3) | 151.8 (+3.2) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | MAN 69 – 65 CAN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | CAN 70 – 64 MAN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MAN 77 – 72 CAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CAN 73 – 70 MAN |
| Jan 27, 2024 | CAN 82 – 70 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-13 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#248) | -6.9 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#141) | -1.18 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#181) | -2.02 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#146) | 0.449 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 34.2% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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