Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +6 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | CSUF -6.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -4.4 (+1.6) | 136.1 (+15.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -5.0 (+1.0) | 140.1 (+11.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -5.4 (+0.6) | 140.3 (+11.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -5.6 (+0.4) | 138.0 (+14.0) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | UCSB 83 – 69 CSUF |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CSUF 95 – 84 UCSB |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UCSB 86 – 56 CSUF |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCSB 83 – 75 CSUF |
| Mar 3, 2024 | CSUF 79 – 70 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 17-11 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 8-5 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#144) | -1.8 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#167) | -1.54 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#161) | -1.70 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#175) | 0.378 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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